Why Scientists think Human Lifespan could Exceed 122 Very Soon

And why it might not be all good news.

Author

My Longevity Experiment
November 10, 2024

Setting a Benchmark for Human Lifespan

In 1997, Jeanne Calment reportedly passed away at the age of 122 in the South of France, establishing a widely accepted benchmark for the human lifespan. While some question the validity of her age, her reported longevity serves as a tentative marker for human survival limits.

Presently, among the limited number of individuals who have surpassed 110, the probability of any reaching 125 is extremely low.

Optimism for a New Record

David McCarthy, an economist from the University of Georgia, and Po-Lin Wang, a risk management and insurance expert from the University of South Florida, bring a more optimistic view. They suggest that a new record might not be far off.

They state, “We can't be blamed for thinking we've squeezed every drop of longevity from our genes. While there are now more centenarians than ever in history, the ceiling for survivability seems stuck in the 11th decade and has been since the last century.”

Understanding the Mortality Plateau

McCarthy and Wang analyzed data from the Human Mortality Database, employing a Bayesian statistical approach to examine lifespans across birth cohorts from 19 industrialized countries. Given the limited statistics on extremely old age, they applied the Gompertz Mortality Law, allowing for more accurate estimation of the age at which individuals might first reach a plateau in mortality rates.

The Concept of Postponed Mortality

This statistical measure, called the 'Gompertz Maximum Age' (GMA), theoretically hints at a potential ceiling for human lifespan. If GMA holds steady across successive birth cohorts, a maximum lifespan might be inferred. However, if GMA trends upward across cohorts, it could indicate that mortality is increasingly "postponed," suggesting that a biological cut-off may not yet have fully manifested.

A Five-Year Increase in Longevity

Historically, GMA has largely remained constant. Advances in public health, sanitation, and healthcare have enabled more people to reach advanced ages without substantially extending maximum lifespan. Nonetheless, there have been periods where GMA notably increased. For instance, those born in the latter half of the 19th century saw GMA rise by approximately five years, particularly among women. This jump could stem from improvements in medical technology and public health measures that allowed certain individuals to live longer than previous generations.

A Potential Record-Breaker by 2060?

A more significant leap appears in cohorts born between 1910 and 1950. These individuals, currently aged 70 to 110, may experience a postponement of mortality by roughly 10 years. As a result, some members of this cohort may achieve unprecedented longevity milestones by 2060.

Explaining Stagnant Records

This postponed mortality could clarify why longevity records have plateaued in recent decades. Social shifts affecting mortality delays may not impact each cohort uniformly; those who might have otherwise set new records may be too old to benefit from recent medical advancements. Yet, progressive improvements in healthcare and social support could allow future generations to potentially add decades to their lives.

That being said, McCarthy and Wang’s findings are built on numerous assumptions, including the intricate relationship between healthcare and mortality postponement.

Researchers' Joint Statement

McCarthy and Wang jointly state, “We emphasize further that cohorts born before 1950 will only have the potential to break existing longevity records if policy choices continue to support the health and welfare of the elderly, and the political, environmental, and economic environment remains stable.”

Challenges Ahead

Rather than providing straightforward optimism, this study might offer a cautionary perspective. An increase in super-aged individuals may strain resources, especially as declining birth rates reduce the support available from younger generations. The recent pandemic’s devastating impact on older populations highlights the current unpreparedness for record-breaking lifespans.

In recent years, studies continue to acknowledge improvements in sanitation, nutrition, and healthcare as crucial factors in pushing the average age upward. However, the statistics often overlook the quality of life for the elderly. While more people reach old age, a substantial number rely on assistance for daily tasks, underscoring the need to address not only lifespan but also quality of life in aging.

Study Links:

https://bit.ly/3GA2UGZ

https://www.mortality.org/

https://bit.ly/3KuWYjL